The final quarter-final match of the Africa Cup of Nations will see the teams from Senegal and Equatorial Guinea meet. The match will kick off at the Stade Ahmadou Ahidjo in Yaoundé at 20:00 CET. Here is our analysis of the teams and a preview of the best betting options for this match.
By the way, you can find our ranking of the top betting providers in our betting sites comparison for Africa.
Who will reach the semi-finals against Morocco or Egypt? Will it be the favourites from Senegal as expected – or will Equatorial Guinea pull off the big surprise of 2015 when they reached the semi-finals of the Africa Cup of Nations. It will definitely be a one-sided match – but as in many other cup matches before, the underdog has a real chance of making it to the semi-finals.
What is in favour of Senegal?
- Better players in every position
- More experience
What is in favour of Equatorial Guinea?
- Team spirit and motivation
- Nothing to lose
- Support from the crowd
Our betting tip
- First Half Draw
- Equatorial Guinea -0.5 cards
- Senegal -3 AH corners
- Bookmaker: Bet365
- Odds: 1.90 / 1.87 / 2.00
Analysis Senegal
It looks a bit like one of those cup games where a Champions League contender meets a purely amateur team. And how often have we seen the underdog win in such cases?
So far, Liverpool superstar Sadio Mané’s team FC has not conceded a single goal. To progress, however, they needed the merciful assistance of referee Lahlou Benbraham in the quarter-final against Cape Verde, who showed the opponents the red card twice in the first 58 minutes of the match. It was only after that that Senegal was able to turn up the heat against a depleted Cape Verde side, winning through goals from Mané and, just before the end, Bamba Dieng. It remains to be said that the Lions from Teranga of course have one of the most outstanding players in the world in their ranks (Sadio Mané), who can be game-decisive through individual actions alone.
Mané, however, initially had to be taken to hospital after a collision. However, the head injury turned out to be less serious than feared and he will most probably be available for his team.
The Senegalese defence with Abdou Diallo of Paris St. Germain is very solid and no team could really threaten goalkeeper Seny Dieng.
Analysis Equatorial Guinea
Who would have thought? The underdogs from Equatorial Guinea (114th in the Fifa world rankings) have reached the quarter-finals of the Africa Cup. And they did so without really shining. What is special about them is that they do not have a single star in the team. Only José Manchin from AC Monza plays in a higher league (Italian Serie B), all the others are scattered in various European leagues or even still play in their African homeland. But will it stay that way? In any case, Salu Coco from the second team of Las Palmas has delivered such a convincing performance in defence that a club change is surely on the cards soon.
What makes the Equatorial Guinea team so special is their consistent defence, which was also able to keep a star-studded Mali side from all over Europe at bay. The team from Equatorial Guinea has only conceded one goal so far, but has also scored just two. The Mali team failed to get past the Equatorial Guinea goalkeeper. And so they saved themselves for the penalty shoot-out, where they held their nerve as the glaring underdogs. Cameroon’s neighbours can hope for a lot of support from the stands in this quarter-final. The downside is that Frederic Bikoro and Josete Miranda are both suspended for yellow cards.
Head to head
There have been surprisingly few meetings between these two teams. They have only met three times, with Senegal winning the last two encounters: 1-0 in 2018 and 3-0 in 2017. But those two games have little relevance to the second leg.
Our betting tip on Senegal vs. Equatorial Guinea
It will be another battle – but also a game that always goes in the same direction: keeper Jesus Owono’s goal. Senegal will not allow their opponents much possession. Everything depends on whether the outsiders keep their defence tight and do not allow stars like Mané or Boulaye Dia to flourish. Should this be the case, the underdogs can go once again into an extra time. Here, too, a close and exciting game is to be expected, in which Equatorial Guinea will play mainly defensively.
Senegal will get more corners, Equatorial Guinea more cards.
Equatorial Guinea should be able to hold a draw until half-time. We also expect that Equatorial Guinea will often only be able to help themselves by committing fouls and will therefore receive more yellow cards than their opponents. As it is a game on one goal, we also expect Senegal to get more corners.
Our bets:
Draw at half-time @1.90
Equatorial Guinea -0.5 Cards @1.87
Senegal -3 Corners AH @2.00
All these bets can be found at Bet365.
