In this weekend, in the French Ligue 1 the 29th matchday will take place. Here, the Derby de la Mediterranée Olympique Marseille vs. OGC Nice on Sunday at 20.45 will represent the crowning finale. On top of that, the second-placed team will face at home the third-placed side, with both arch-rivals having 50 points and a goal difference of +17. Jérôme Brisard will be in charge of the match at the Stade Vélodrome.
Olympique Marseille competed against Basel in the last sixteen of the Conference League. Here, Jorge Sampaoli’s side won 2-1 both at home the previous week as well as in Switzerland on Thursday. In between and with a 4-1 at 13th-placed Stade Brest on Sunday, OM returned to winning ways after three Ligue 1 fixtures. In their last championship home game so far, on 6 March, they suffered in another Derby de la Mediterranée a 0-1 to AS Monaco.
On the other hand, the visitors in the Olympique Marseille vs. OGC Nice clash are unbeaten in four Ligue 1 appearances. For example, Christophe Galtier’s squad experienced 1-0 home victories against 14th-placed SCO Angers and top-placed PSG. However, the Aiglons from the Côte d’Azur drew 0-0 away against Racing Strasbourg and on Saturday against eleventh-placed HSC Montpellier.
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What speaks for Olympique Marseille?
- Playing in front of a home crowd
- Coach Sampaoli can draw from the full squad
- They gained confidence with wins in Brest and Basel
What speaks for OGC Nice?
- Unbeaten in four league games
- Defeated Paris Saint-Germain in their last home game so far
- Doesn’t play in the European Cups and can focus on Ligue 1
Our betting prediction:
- Tip: Under 2.5 goals
- Bookmaker: 1xBet
- Odds: 1.81
Expert analysis Olympique Marseille
For the home side, the Derby de la Mediterranée Olympique Marseille vs. OGC Nice comes three days after they advanced to the quarter-finals of the Conference League. There, Sampaoli’s team defeated Basel in the round of sixteen. OM won 2-1 both at home and in Switzerland on Thursday.
In between, the Phocéens returned to winning ways in Ligue 1 on Sunday with a 4-1 away win over 13th-placed Stade Brest. Before that and after a 2-1 at second-last Metz in mid-February, Olympique Marseille initially collected just one point in three encounters. The previous month ended with a 0-2 home defeat to fifth-bottom Clermont Foot and a 1-1 at 15th-placed ES Troyes.
Thereafter, Sampaoli’s side suffered a 0-1 defeat to eighth-placed AS Monaco in their latest championship home match as well as another Derby de la Mediterranée. Thus, for the third consecutive time, less than 2.5 goals were scored in a Ligue 1 appearance of OM. Moreover, what these encounters had in common was that the Phocéens failed to capitalize on their much greater ball possession.
Sampaoli was without the suspended Dimitri Payet for the second leg against Basel. The attacking star and captain now returns to the starting line-up. Consequently, the coach of the home side will be able to draw from the full squad for the classic match between Olympique Marseille and OGC Nice.
Expert analysis OGC Nice
OGC Nice didn’t take part in any European Cups this season and were therefore able to focus on the championship. This was noticeable in Ligue 1. On 6 March, Christophe Galtier’s team achieved with a 1-0 home win against leaders Paris Saint-Germain their seventh victory in ten appearances.
Furthermore and after a 0-2 away defeat against tenth-placed Olympique Lyon, the Aiglons from the Côte d’Azur are unbeaten in four games. Before defeating the leaders, OGC Nice collected a 1-0 home win over 14th-placed SCO Angers and a 0-0 at fifth-placed Racing Strasbourg. Then, they experienced the same result at eleventh-placed HSC Montpellier on Saturday. There, centre-back and captain Dante was sent off with a red card in the 35th minute. Consequently, the visitors had to play with one man less for more than half of the match.
Before that, between the end of January and the beginning of February, the third-placed team suffered a 0-2 defeat in Metz plus a 0-1 home defeat against Clermont Foot. This means that in all of OGC Nice’s last seven championship games so far, less than 2.5 goals were scored. Logically, in the derby Olympique Marseille vs. OGC Nice, Galtier will have to do without the suspended Dante. Furthermore, right midfielder Hicham Boudaoui and left winger Justin Kluivert are in doubt.
Head-to-head comparison Olympique Marseille – OGC Nice
It will be the fourth derby de la Mediterranée Olympique Marseille vs. OGC Nice in the 2021/2022 season. One of the reasons for this is that the first duel in the Ligue 1 de facto took place twice. The first attempt at the end of August ended with a score of 1-0 and due to tumults and an attack on Payet.
On 27 October, a new clash followed in Troyes and finished in a 1-1. Afterwards, the arch-rivals competed against each other in the quarter-finals of the Coupe de France on 9 February. Here, OGC Nice celebrated a 4-1 home victory against Olympique Marseille.
Our betting prediction and the best odds
According to the betting sites, Olympique Marseille go as favourites in their home match against OGC Nice. However, the home side lost their two most recent Ligue 1 appearances in front of their home crowd. Even though OM had a higher ball possession against Clermont Foot as well as against AS Monaco, this doesn’t necessarily speak for a victory against OGC Nice.
Not least because the visitors are unbeaten in four league games. And most recently they drew 0-0 at Racing Strasbourg as well as in Montpellier. Therefore and ahead of this Derby de la Mediterranée, we suggest betting on a under 2.5 goals. OM did win 4-1 at Brest on Sunday, but before that two or fewer goals were scored in three games in a row. Moreover, this occurred in all of the Aiglons’ last seven Ligue 1 appearances to date.
Olympique Marseille vs. OGC Nice – betting prediction: Under 2.5 goals, odds 1.81 at bookmaker 1xBet
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