Olympique Marseille vs. OGC Nice – betting prediction, odds for the Ligue 1 match (20.03.2022, 20:45 CET)

In this weekend, in the French Ligue 1 the 29th matchday will take place. Here, the Derby de la Mediterranée Olympique Marseille vs. OGC Nice on Sunday at 20.45 will represent the crowning finale. On top of that, the second-placed team will face at home the third-placed side, with both arch-rivals having 50 points and a goal difference of +17. Jérôme Brisard will be in charge of the match at the Stade Vélodrome.

Olympique Marseille competed against Basel in the last sixteen of the Conference League. Here, Jorge Sampaoli’s side won 2-1 both at home the previous week as well as in Switzerland on Thursday. In between and with a 4-1 at 13th-placed Stade Brest on Sunday, OM returned to winning ways after three Ligue 1 fixtures. In their last championship home game so far, on 6 March, they suffered in another Derby de la Mediterranée a 0-1 to AS Monaco.

On the other hand, the visitors in the Olympique Marseille vs. OGC Nice clash are unbeaten in four Ligue 1 appearances. For example, Christophe Galtier’s squad experienced 1-0 home victories against 14th-placed SCO Angers and top-placed PSG. However, the Aiglons from the Côte d’Azur drew 0-0 away against Racing Strasbourg and on Saturday against eleventh-placed HSC Montpellier.

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What speaks for Olympique Marseille?

  • Playing in front of a home crowd
  • Coach Sampaoli can draw from the full squad
  • They gained confidence with wins in Brest and Basel

What speaks for OGC Nice?

  • Unbeaten in four league games
  • Defeated Paris Saint-Germain in their last home game so far
  • Doesn’t play in the European Cups and can focus on Ligue 1

Our betting prediction:

  • Tip: Under 2.5 goals
  • Bookmaker: 1xBet
  • Odds: 1.81

Expert analysis Olympique Marseille

For the home side, the Derby de la Mediterranée Olympique Marseille vs. OGC Nice comes three days after they advanced to the quarter-finals of the Conference League. There, Sampaoli’s team defeated Basel in the round of sixteen. OM won 2-1 both at home and in Switzerland on Thursday.

In between, the Phocéens returned to winning ways in Ligue 1 on Sunday with a 4-1 away win over 13th-placed Stade Brest. Before that and after a 2-1 at second-last Metz in mid-February, Olympique Marseille initially collected just one point in three encounters. The previous month ended with a 0-2 home defeat to fifth-bottom Clermont Foot and a 1-1 at 15th-placed ES Troyes.

Thereafter, Sampaoli’s side suffered a 0-1 defeat to eighth-placed AS Monaco in their latest championship home match as well as another Derby de la Mediterranée. Thus, for the third consecutive time, less than 2.5 goals were scored in a Ligue 1 appearance of OM. Moreover, what these encounters had in common was that the Phocéens failed to capitalize on their much greater ball possession.

Sampaoli was without the suspended Dimitri Payet for the second leg against Basel. The attacking star and captain now returns to the starting line-up. Consequently, the coach of the home side will be able to draw from the full squad for the classic match between Olympique Marseille and OGC Nice.

Expert analysis OGC Nice

OGC Nice didn’t take part in any European Cups this season and were therefore able to focus on the championship. This was noticeable in Ligue 1. On 6 March, Christophe Galtier’s team achieved with a 1-0 home win against leaders Paris Saint-Germain their seventh victory in ten appearances.

Furthermore and after a 0-2 away defeat against tenth-placed Olympique Lyon, the Aiglons from the Côte d’Azur are unbeaten in four games. Before defeating the leaders, OGC Nice collected a 1-0 home win over 14th-placed SCO Angers and a 0-0 at fifth-placed Racing Strasbourg. Then, they experienced the same result at eleventh-placed HSC Montpellier on Saturday. There, centre-back and captain Dante was sent off with a red card in the 35th minute. Consequently, the visitors had to play with one man less for more than half of the match.

Before that, between the end of January and the beginning of February, the third-placed team suffered a 0-2 defeat in Metz plus a 0-1 home defeat against Clermont Foot. This means that in all of OGC Nice’s last seven championship games so far, less than 2.5 goals were scored. Logically, in the derby Olympique Marseille vs. OGC Nice, Galtier will have to do without the suspended Dante. Furthermore, right midfielder Hicham Boudaoui and left winger Justin Kluivert are in doubt.

Head-to-head comparison Olympique Marseille – OGC Nice

It will be the fourth derby de la Mediterranée Olympique Marseille vs. OGC Nice in the 2021/2022 season. One of the reasons for this is that the first duel in the Ligue 1 de facto took place twice. The first attempt at the end of August ended with a score of 1-0 and due to tumults and an attack on Payet.

On 27 October, a new clash followed in Troyes and finished in a 1-1. Afterwards, the arch-rivals competed against each other in the quarter-finals of the Coupe de France on 9 February. Here, OGC Nice celebrated a 4-1 home victory against Olympique Marseille.

Our betting prediction and the best odds

According to the betting sites, Olympique Marseille go as favourites in their home match against OGC Nice. However, the home side lost their two most recent Ligue 1 appearances in front of their home crowd. Even though OM had a higher ball possession against Clermont Foot as well as against AS Monaco, this doesn’t necessarily speak for a victory against OGC Nice.

Not least because the visitors are unbeaten in four league games. And most recently they drew 0-0 at Racing Strasbourg as well as in Montpellier. Therefore and ahead of this Derby de la Mediterranée, we suggest betting on a under 2.5 goals. OM did win 4-1 at Brest on Sunday, but before that two or fewer goals were scored in three games in a row. Moreover, this occurred in all of the Aiglons’ last seven Ligue 1 appearances to date.

Olympique Marseille vs. OGC Nice – betting prediction: Under 2.5 goals, odds 1.81 at bookmaker 1xBet

Alice Kopp
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By Alice Kopp

Alice is half Austrian and half Italian. That's why she experienced the 1990 World Cup in Italy at first hand. And that awakened her enthusiasm for football. Since she has loved writing since childhood, Alice began to study journalism while still at school. It was very convenient for her that her class took part in a project of a German daily newspaper. She was also allowed to write for the children's pages of an Austrian daily newspaper and to get a taste of the sports department of the same medium. This is how she received her first press accreditations, which was of course anything but a matter of course for the then 18-year-old. Although she was partly advised against it, Alice decided to study journalism and communication sciences. After a few years, she decided to use the exams she had taken as an elective. Nevertheless, she applies the knowledge she has acquired in her further professional life. The same applies to her language skills. In addition to her mother tongues German and Italian, Alice is also proficient in English and Spanish. She also understands French and can use this language in research. During her studies, Alice was involved in an Austrian football club. At the same time, she wrote for a total of three Austrian portals and worked as an Austria correspondent for an Italian-language online medium. This collaboration started during Giovanni Trapattoni's era at Red Bull Salzburg and continued during EURO 2008. This gave her the opportunity to interact with Trapattoni as well as with Italian journalists. From the following year, Alice initially worked with a Swiss portal before discovering sports betting content for herself. On the one hand, this kept her in sports journalism, and on the other, it broadened her horizons. And that both in the context of the sports betting industry and with other sports as well as countries. In the field of sports journalism, she focused in particular on football from around the world, volleyball and beach volleyball. In addition, she naturally wrote several guides, bookmaker profiles, bonus articles and other content for betting enthusiasts. She did this for the same company for about ten years, writing articles in German and Italian. She also built the Italian-language website together with the managing director. Meanwhile, Alice started working with another Austrian football club. Furthermore, she joined the Association Internationale de la Presse Sportive (AIPS) in 2016. This gives her the opportunity to watch teams and athletes on the ground relatively often. Not only sports betting, but also radio In January 2019, the next step in her professional development followed. For: she started creating premium content on the topic of sports betting. In the process, she finally put out feelers to almost all countries and all continents. And this was not least due to the fact that both German and English-speaking users subscribed to her content. Nevertheless, Alice continued to use her knowledge of Italian, among other things. On the one hand, because she regularly exchanges ideas with Italian colleagues, and on the other, because she works with a web radio station. The Corona crisis had a strong impact on the sports world and on interest in sports betting, primarily in the early days. Therefore, a fresh start was necessary and, on balance, Alice found the fields of activity that suited her best. She also writes articles for an agency on almost all disciplines as well as on eSports and content for a German online medium. Alice is half Austrian and half Italian. That's why she experienced the 1990 World Cup in Italy at first hand. And that awakened her enthusiasm for football.