AC Milan vs. AS Roma – betting tip, prediction, odds for the Serie A match (06.01.2022, 18:30 CET)
Serie A Prediction

AC Milan vs. AS Roma – betting tip, prediction, odds for the Serie A match (06.01.2022, 18:30 CET)

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On Thursday at 18:30 AC Milan will face AS Roma at the San Siro. It is a public holiday in Italy (Epiphany). Here you can find out everything you need to know about this match between two of Italy’s best teams. 

On Thursday at 18:30 AC Milan will face AS Roma at the San Siro. It is a public holiday in Italy (Epiphany). Here you can find out everything you need to know about this match between two of Italy’s best teams. 

What’s in favor of the home team?

  • Ibrahimovic is back
  • San Siro is sold out (50%)

What’s in favor of the away team?

  • Few absences lately, tendency increasing
  • Good results in Milan

Our betting tip

  • Tip: AS ROM +0,5
  • Bookmaker: Bet365
  • Odds: 1.86

The ghost of Omikron is also haunting Italy. Every day, new players join the list of those who are not available for their teams because of Covid-19. Also in Seria A, it was up for debate to what extent the stadiums would be filled. The result was 50%. In addition, FFP2 masks are mandatory and visitors must have the Italian Covid pass.

However, the Africa Cup starting soon hits both teams harder than Covid. Several of their stars are not available for today’s match. Nevertheless, we have picked out the best betting offer on this match for you.

Expert analysis AC MILAN

Milan is currently in a good second place. The Rossoneri are well on their way to defending their second place from last year. The gap to city rivals Inter is only four points, but Inter seems to be the more consolidated and better-stocked team overall. This was also shown by Milan’s unfortunate elimination from the Champions League. 

After many years of irrelevance, however, it is already an important step to bring continuity back into the Milanese results. Therefore, qualifying for the Champions League again has top priority. 

A look at the season so far makes it clear that Milan has relatively big problems beating the top teams at home. In the Champions League, they could not win a single home match and in the league, they stumbled against Napoli or Inter. 

With Ballo-Touré (Senegal), Franck Kessie (Ivory Coast), and Ismael Bennacer (Algeria), Milan will have to replace three top-class players for the match against AS Roma. Kessie in particular will be difficult for coach Stefano Pioli to replace. The defensive midfielder was one of the top performers for AC Milan. 

In addition, there is an unknown player who has been infected with Covid-19 and whose name has not yet been announced. He joins substitute goalkeeper Tatarusano, whose illness is now official. In defense, however, Simon Kjaer, who has been injured for a long time, continues to be missed. A replacement is to be signed for him in this winter transfer window. 

At least Zlatan Ibrahimovic, the team’s leader, is coming back. Whether he or Olivier Giroud or maybe even both, will be in the starting eleven, Pioli will not announce until the same morning. The two retirees (40 and 35) still have goal-scoring qualities but have slowed down due to age. They also lack a player who can regularly provide them with assists. Left-back Theo Hernandez is surprisingly the team’s best provider of assists (5 assists).

Expert analysis AS ROMA

Jose Mourinho took up his job as head coach of AS Roma – as always – with much fanfare and got off to a spectacular start: The first six competitive games were all won. Then, however, there were some bitter defeats, such as the 1:6 against the Norwegian team Bodo/Glimt in the Europa League. Recently, however, the Romans have been able to regain their composure and have won 6 of their last 9 games and drawn 1, including a surprising and spectacular away win against Atalanta Bergamo. 

Roma will also have to do without two players due to the Africa Cup. Defensive midfielder Amadou Diawara plays for Guinea, while his midfield colleague Ebrima Darboe starts for Gambia. None of these players, however, play an important role in Jose Mourinho’s team. So these are departures that are seen rather positively. Both Darboe and Diaware can gain valuable match practice.

Roma’s injury list also looks less frightening than that of their opponents. Borja Mayoral is out with Covid. Fuzzato and Spinazzola have been out of action since the beginning of the season. Only Tammy Abraham is still a problem child in the Italian capital. The Englishman was involved in a car accident with his Porsche this week but remained uninjured. Nevertheless, his participation is still questionable.

Tammy Abraham has impressed since his move from Chelsea to Roma, scoring 9 points in 18 games.

Head-2-Head-comparison

AC Milan vs. AS Roma is of course one of the classics in Italian football. In the past, Milan has narrowly had the upper hand. However, Milan has only won 13 of their 29 home games. 8 times there was a draw and 8 times Roma managed to win. So in 56% of all Milan games, you would have won with Asian Handicap +0.5 or Double Chance.

However, it is important to remember that Milan has been one of the best teams in the world for a long period of time. In the last 6 years, the performance ratios were skewed. Milan won only 2 of the last 6 home games, Roma 3, last season there was a spectacular 3:3.

Fun Fact: The statistics of Roma’s home games against Milan are identical. (2-1-3). So home wins have been rather rare in this encounter lately.

Our betting tip for Milan against Roma

We bet on Roma maintaining their momentum from the last few weeks. They have already defeated Atalanta Bergamo. AC Milan is suffering from the departure of its Africans more than many other teams. Even if Kassie alone was uncontroversial, Ballo-Touré and Bennacer were important supplementary players who could be used well due to injuries and the absence of Covid.

Roma should be able to take at least a point from the San Siro. We have opted for the Asian Handicap bet +0.5, i.e. the bet is won on a draw or an away win for Roma. This type of bet is similar to the double chance bet. 

Our betting tip: AS ROMA +0.5, Odds: 1.86 at bet365.

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Max lives half in Spain, half in South America and is originally a journalist and author, but in the past 20 years he also got to know the sports betting world from different sides. Among other things, he worked as an odds compiler for German sports at a large British provider and acquired a healthy basic knowledge of statistics. On the side, he had a weekly Bundesliga column in a major Hong Kong newspaper and worked in an advisory capacity for sports betting providers as well as professional bettors. He is an expert on German football and follows with great enthusiasm any other sport where there are rolling and flying balls, interesting statistics and good betting opportunities.