In Italy’s Serie A, the fixtures of the 21st round will be played in the coming days. Here, the derby Inter Milan vs. AC Milan will take place on Sunday at 20:45. Thus, the second in the Serie A table will receive the fifth. The Nerazzurri and the Rossoneri took 40 and 38 points respectively.
What speaks for Inter Milan?
- Prevailed 3-0 over their city rivals in the Italian Super Cup in mid-January.
- Won five of their last seven league matches.
What speaks for AC Milan?
- Didn’t play in the quarter-finals of the Coppa Italia and could therefore focus on the derby.
Our betting prediction:
- Prediction: Over 2.5 goals
- Odds: 1.89
Expert analysis Inter Milan
For Inter Milan, the derby against AC Milan comes four days after a 1-0 home win against the fourth in the Serie A table and regional rivals, Atalanta, in the quarter-finals of the Coppa Italia. Conversely, in 14 of the 20 championship games involving Simone Inzaghi’s side so far, more than 2.5 goals were scored.
In November, for example, the Nerazzurri won 6-1 at home to the ninth-placed Bologna and 3-2 at Atalanta before the break. After the World Cup, the Serie A returned on 4 January. Here, Inter Milan inflicted, with a 1-0 in front of their home crowd, the leaders Napoli their first defeat in the Serie A 2022/2023. However, the visitors failed to convert a 64% possession. On the other hand, the Nerazzurri missed two further big chances.
But three days later, the second-placed team experienced a setback at another regional rival, Monza. Because: The eleventh-ranked team equalized in the injury time thanks to an own goal to a 2-2. But Inter Milan immediately got back on the winning track with a 1-0 at home over the third-bottom Hellas Verona and took the momentum into the Super Cup. Because: Inzaghi’s squad defeated AC Milan 3-0 in the Saudi Arabian capital Riyadh.
Initially, a 0-1 humiliation at home against the tenth-placed Empoli followed. Furthermore, the bottom-ranked regional rivals Cremonese took an early lead on Saturday. Lautaro Martínez turned the match around with a brace and led Inter Milan to a 2-1 away win.
Expert analysis AC Milan
Moreover, in 14 of AC Milan’s most recent 16 Serie A matches, more than 2.5 goals were scored. The second exception occurred on 8 November with a 0-0 at Cremonese. Immediately before and thereafter, Stefano Pioli’s team beat at home the fourth-last-placed Spezia and the twelfth-ranked Fiorentina by 2-1.
Then, the champions achieved the same result on their return from the break at 14th-placed Salernitana. Afterwards, everything went downhill for the Rossoneri. Here, AC Milan first experienced two 2-2 at home to the sixth-placed AS Roma and at the 15th-placed Lecce. Next, the Diavolo lost three times in a row.
Before and after the 0-3 in the Super Cup, Pioli’s team suffered a 0-4 at the third-ranked Lazio Roma and on Sunday a 2-5 home debacle against the 16th-placed Sassuolo. Here, the Rossoneri conceded for the fifth time in a row at least two goals. Moreover, their opponents netted a total of twelve times in their last three games.
Head-to-head comparison Inter Milan – AC Milan
In the first two derbies against AC Milan in the 2022/2023 season, Inter Milan experienced a 2-3 away defeat in the Serie A and the 3-0 in the Super Cup. As such, more than 2.5 goals were scored in both encounters. The same event occurred in two of the four matches last season. Because: Inter Milan and AC Milan clashed twice in the league and just as often in the semi-finals of the Coppa Italia.
Our betting prediction and the best odds
More than 2.5 goals resulted in the previous two Inter Milan vs. AC Milan derbies in this season. Furthermore, this event occurred in 14 of the hosts’ 20 championship matches so far. In January, the Nerazzurri recorded a 2-2 at the eleventh-placed Monza and a 2-1 at the last-ranked Cremonese. Plus, more than 2.5 goals resulted in all the visitors’ last five Serie A appearances. However, the Rossoneri conceded a minimum of two goals in all their most recent five matches. Moreover, Pioli’s side, starting with the 0-3 in the Super Cup, allowed 12 goals in three games.
Inter Milan vs. AC Milan – betting prediction: Over 2.5 goals, odds 1.89
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