The 2nd Bundesliga begins the second half of the season with a derby between two of Germany’s most traditional teams. Dynamo Dresden welcome the favourites from Hamburg. The match at Dresden’s Rudolf Harbig Stadium will kick off at 6:30 pm and will be played without spectators. Here is our analysis.
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What speaks in favour of Dynamo Dresden?
- The last home game against HSV was won 4:1 (in the cup).
- Good preparation: 5:0 win against Erzgebirge Aue
- Selectively strengthened in attack
And what speaks for Hamburger SV?
- Few absences
- Dresden without spectators
- Won all away games in the 2. BL against Dresden
Our betting tip
- Tip: Hamburger SV -0,5
- Bookmaker: Interwetten
- Odds: 1.90
The starting positions of the two teams could not be more different. The promoted team from Dresden wants to avoid relegation to the third division again – but without their own fans in the stadium, it will be difficult for the Saxons. When they suddenly had to play without spectators in the 19/20 season, that ultimately sealed their relegation. The enthusiastic Dynamo fans cannot support their team against HSV because of the Corona measures.
HSV, on the other hand, want to go back to where they played for almost 55 years without interruption – into the 1st division. Meanwhile, they are already playing their 4th season in the second division. Three times in a row HSV was in 1st or 2nd place after the first half of the season, but at the end of the season they were only in 4th place three times in a row – they failed to gain promotion. The reason for this were catastrophically bad second rounds.
Analysis Dynamo Dresden
The team from the east of Germany started the 21/22 season with great verve, but then fell into a period of weakness when they suddenly lost 8 out of 9 games. Nevertheless, they finished the first half of the season in a fairly solid 11th place.
During the short winter break, the team stayed at home in Dresden and played a few test matches, including a 135-minute friendly against league rivals Erzgebirge Aue, which ended 5-0 for the Dresdeners. The match-winner for Dynamo was new signing Vaclav Drchal, whom Dynamo were able to loan from Sparta Prague and who may be able to fix the problems in the offensive.
Another new signing is the 20-year-old talent Oliver Batista-Meier, who moves to the Elbe from the 2nd team of Bayern Munich. The German-Brazilian was long considered one of the greatest talents in Germany, but was ultimately unable to assert himself.
Analysis Hamburger SV
Hamburg SV is currently in third place in the table – even though they have only lost two games. But coach Walter’s team has simply played too many draws and lost important points in the process. One of these unnecessary draws was against Friday’s opponents Dynamo Dresden, in August the two teams drew 1-1.
But the HSV team has managed to change its face over the course of the season. They became more confident and played their technical superiority especially against deep standing teams. It became more difficult when they were put under pressure themselves, as in the games against Schalke or Duesseldorf. During the winter break, the team flew to Andalusia for a short training camp and won a test match against league rivals Karlsruher SC with 3:1.
Except for the long-term injured Leibold, HSV can choose from a full squad. Shooting star Faride Alidou is still part of the squad. The youngster has only played a few games for HSV, but has provided many fresh impulses. His talent has not gone unnoticed in the Bundesliga. Eintracht Frankfurt seized the opportunity and signed the talent for next season. Whether this move will have an effect on his performance in the HSV jersey remains to be seen.
In the last few games, Alidou and Bakary Jatta have made a splash on the wings. In goal, regular goalkeeper Heuer-Fernandez is back after a long injury break. His substitute Marko Johannsen did a good job, but showed clear weaknesses in handling the ball and often put the HSV defence in danger with misplaced passes. Defender David is also available again.
Head-2-Head & other statistics
Hamburg is the most ball-secure team in the 2nd Bundesliga. No other team has as much possession as Hamburg, and with 83.4% they have the best passing rate in the league. Tim Walter’s team is always looking for playful solutions and creates so many chances in the five-metre area. Dresden, on the other hand, stands deeper and waits. They have their qualities especially in the air – there they are the second best team – while HSV mostly avoids aerial duels and keeps the ball on the ground.
Both teams have already played each other 5 times in the 2.Liga. 4 times Hamburg won, only once Dresden could get a point.
However, Dynamo Dresden defeated Hamburg 4:1 in September 2020 in the DFB Cup in a euphoric match, albeit in front of a sell-out crowd at the time.
Our betting tip for Dynamo Dresden vs. Hamburger SV
HSV were convincing in the last games before the winter break and will now start the second half of the season with a lot of self-confidence and without injury worries.
In HSV’s favour is the fact that Dresden will have no spectator support. Hamburg will put Dresden under a lot of pressure and stay on the ball. Thanks to the return of regular goalkeeper Heuer-Fernandez, they are more secure at the back and can build the game better. HSV will probably start 2022 with a win.
Our betting tip: Hamburg SV -0.5
Odds: 1.90
The odds at Interwetten are fair and realistically reflect the balance of power.
