The top match of the French Ligue 1 takes place on Sunday evening. Olympique Lyon welcomes the serial champions Paris St. Germain at their home Groupama Stadium, which can be filled with a maximum of 5000 spectators. The kick-off is at 20:45.
What speaks in favor of Olympique Lyon?
- A week longer break than PSG
- The last four games without defeat (but also without victory)
What speaks for Paris St. Germain?
- Leo Messi is getting into better form
- Only one defeat from 19 games
- Squad density. Absentees can be replaced easily
Our betting tip
- Tip: Paris St. Germain -1
- Bookmaker: Bet365
- Odds: 2.375
Last season this was a top match in the fight for the championship. Olympique only dropped to 4th place due to two unnecessary defeats in the last 5 games of the season. The champions, however, were surprisingly OSC Lille – and not serial winners PSG as usual. In 2022, however, everything looks the same: Paris St. Germain dominates the league and is already 13 points ahead of second-placed Nice. And Lyon? Olympique is in a disappointing mid-table position.
Analysis Olympique Lyon
The team of Dutch coach Peter Bosz is in a disappointing 11th place after half of the season. Particularly surprising is the fact that Peter Bosz started with winning streaks and outstanding offensive football at his previous stations as coach in the Bundesliga (Dortmund and Leverkusen). Dortmund even briefly dreamed of the title until a series of disappointing games set in from which Bosz was unable to recover.
And Olympique Lyon already seems to be in that situation. They have won only one of their last 6 games: They took three points at Montpellier at the end of November. Their last home win dates back to the end of October when they beat Lens 2-1. Of course, Bosz had a difficult start. The best players of OL like strikers Memphis Depay and Maxwel Cornet left the club. In their place, former world champion Jerome Boateng from FC Bayern as well as Emerson and Shaqiri came into the team, but especially Shaqiri has been a big disappointment so far and they already want to part with him again, and Boateng has already been heavily criticized.
The only bright spot is that OL is unbeaten in four games, including the Europa League match against Glasgow Rangers – but every single one of those games ended in a draw. And now PSG comes with Mbappé and Messi, and OL is currently struggling with the fact that they have three African players in their squad participating in the Africa Cup of Nations, in the midst of an already difficult Covid 19 situation.
Karl Toko Ekambi of Cameroon is one of them. The striker made 15 scorer points in 24 games this season (including Europa League) and is usually a starter alongside Lukas Paqueta. However, the Brazilian has been absent recently due to Covid 19 illness and his participation in the home game is still open. Tinotenda Kadewere of Zimbabwe and Islam Slimane of Algeria are the other two strikers who will play for their home countries at the Africa Cup in Cameroon.
Analysis Paris St. Germain
Last season PSG had to cede the title to OSC Lille. This season, the team’s strengths have returned in full force. Paris St. Germain dominates the league. Halfway through the season, they have lost only one game out of 19 and won 14.
If PSG has shown any weakness at all this season, it has been on the opposition’s pitch: they have won only 2 of their last 6 away games, the last two ending in draws. Yet, this season, there is a feeling that PSG is somehow still in a bad place. The French league as a whole is simply too weak for the Parisians, and when the opposition has bought away its best players (e.g. Lyon with Depay) but can afford Messi, Donnarumma, or Ramos in the team, the inequality in the French league becomes clear.
PSG also has to do without players who are playing in Cameroon at the African Cup: Abdou Diallo and Idrissa Gueye are participating for Senegal, right-back Achraf Hakimi for his home country Morocco. These are three players with class. Hakimi is one of the best in the world in his position. But at PSG they are relaxed. All three can be replaced.
Leo Messi’s health has been more of a problem lately. The Argentine tested positive for Covid, had to be quarantined for a short time, but is now negative again and available to PSG. The world footballer had teething problems in Paris and could only convince in the Champions League with 5 goals. In the league, he “only” picked up 5 scorer points in 10 games, which is unusually low for a Messi.
But PSG is counting on the rising form of Messi, whose last game in Lorient (1:1) was considered his best so far in a PSG jersey. Still, PSG’s list of absentees is long. Donnarumma, Neymar, Draxler, Di Maria, Kurzawa, Bernat, Pereira, Diallo, Gueye, Hakimi, Mendes – a complete team is not present against Lyon. But PSG’s squad depth is such that even that is easy to cope with. A look at the forward line with Icardi, Mbappé, or Messi confirms the superiority.
The H2H comparison between Olympique Lyon vs. Paris St. Germain
For many years, Olympique Lyon was as dominant in the French league as PSG are today. Back then, they could beat the Parisians for the most part. But the last few years have made the change of power clear. Olympique’s last two home games against PSG were lost with 2:4 and 1:5.
Our betting tip for the match Olympique Lyon vs Paris St. Germain
Of course, PSG sometimes loses points unnecessarily, like in the last away match in Lorient (1:1). In these games, a certain arrogance sometimes spreads through Pocchettini’s team. But against the top teams, the capitals are convincing. And even if the table does not reflect it that way, Olympique can still be called a top team.
Now it’s the turn of PSG’s reserves. The second-tier players can fight for a regular spot, while in attack you have Mbappé in absolute top form and a Leo Messi who, on a good day, can play cat-and-mouse with Jerome Boateng anyway, as he has often proved.
Therefore, a bet on an away win for the league leader is recommended. The odds are much higher than one might expect. The uncertain Covid situation of some games and the many absences at PSG are reflected in it. With the Asian Handicap bet -1, the bet is won if PSG wins with two goals difference. In case of a win with one goal difference, the stake is paid back.
Our betting tip: PSG -1 ASIAN HANDICAP, Odds: 2.375@bet365
The bookmaker Bet365 offers some other highly interesting bets on this match. For example, you can bet at odds of 1.80 that Kylian Mbappé will score a goal at any time. Another promising bet is on PSG to score in both halves at odds of 2.25.
