Findings from the 2021/2022 backtest and possible conclusions with regard to betting strategies
However, even this is no guarantee that these strategies would also work in 2022/2023. The teams have changed. But there is a lot to be said for just giving it a try.
These findings are based on the average closing odds of the respective games.
IMPORTANT: The following statements have been evaluated by us based on the data material available to us and do not represent a recommendation or even an invitation to bet. Furthermore, the following information does not claim to be complete. All information without guarantee.
1×2 bets
Spanish La Liga draws with odds under 3.45
Among the best connoisseurs of the respective leagues are always the odds setters of the respective sports betting providers themselves. And in the Spanish La Liga, they used odds under 3.45 for draws particularly often last season – meaning a probability of 27% and higher. That happened a total of 198 times, and of those, 77 games actually ended in a points split – that’s almost 39%. These numbers already show that the bookmakers might have made a mistake here. And indeed, if you had bet 100 euros on each of the games offered by the sports betting providers with average odds between 2.7 and 3.45, you would have reaped a whopping plus of 4398 euros at the end of the season with an ROI of 22.2%.
The games of Sevilla FC (+1821 euros), Valencia FC (+1625 euros), Getafe FC (+1497) and Cadiz FC (+965 euros) proved to be real gold mines. Minus amounts would have been only 5 of the 20 teams: Real Mallorca (-576 euros), CD Alaves (-539 euros), Betis Sevilla (-516 euros), Atletico Madrid (-356 euros) and Real Madrid (-68 euros).
After 100 games, i.e. until the 10th matchday, you would have reached a plus of 1000 euros and 100 games later you would already have had a profit of 2882. A look at the previous seasons also shows that you would have done well with this strategy.
Also in Germany, France and Italy there would have been profits over a longer period – only in the English Premierleague you should keep your hands off draws.
Conclusion:
The odds compilers are thinking something when they rate the draws higher. In Spain, the constellation in 21/22 was such that there were only a few top favorites, but quite a few clubs in the middle. This will not be different in 22/23. Therefore, it is definitely worthwhile to continue this draw strategy in La Liga. It is best to bet only on match day, the market tends to overvalue favorites, thus the draw prices usually increase shortly before kickoff.
Draw No Bet away wins in Italian Serie A with odds of 2.16+
Draw No Bet is a type of bet offered by several bookmakers under different names. Sometimes it is called ” No Draw”, sometimes simply 0, sometimes DNB. Here you bet on the victory of one of the two teams – in the event of a draw, you will then get your stake back, while the odds will be lowered. For example, a winning odds of 1.86 becomes 1.36 at DNB.
In the Italian Seria A last season, there was an unusually low number of home wins of “only” 38.95% – which, conversely, means that there would have been no loss in 61% of all matches with a bet on DNB Away. So, if you had bet on all 380 games of the Italian league, you would have already made a very good profit of 2909 euros and a ROI of 7.7%.
However, if you had only used odds of 2.16+ for the bet, you would have made a return of 3,066 euros (15.1%) on 203 games.
However, there is an important catch to this. A large share of this credit was contributed exclusively by the team of Atalanta Bergamo with 2763 euros. But SSC Napoli also impressed with a plus of 664 euros. Larger losses were made exclusively by 6 teams, including Lazio Roma (-800 euros), AC Florence (-702 euros), AS Roma (-683 euros) and Inter Milan (-490 euros).
This strategy would not have yielded a profit after the first 10 matchdays, but even a small minus. But from the 11th matchday, the profits started to develop.
Conclusion:
Italy was generally a good place to play away games last season. DNB is always an appealing alternative, as you don’t lose your bet in case of a draw, but get it back. But since Atalanta Bergamo in particular took the winnings here, you have to be careful. Nevertheless, from the 10th matchday onwards, you could bet here.
Draw No Bet away wins in the Italian Seria A with odds between 6.0 and 14.0
We have already explained that away bets in Italy would have been very successful in the 2021/2022 season. But a special focus on the big outsiders, also called underdogs, should not go unmentioned. In 51 games, there were DNB odds for the away teams of at least 6.00 and higher. If you had bet an amount of 100 euros on each of these games, you would have ended up with a profit of 2923 euros, which would have meant an ROI of 30.1% after all.
The biggest favorite killer was again the team of Atalanta Bergamo, which was rated particularly low in 9 games and made a profit of 1753 euros just because of that. SSC Napoli (+897 euros) and Hellas Verona (+647 euros) also brought in good money.
Conclusion:
Betting on extreme underdogs involves a lot of patience. You always have to expect a loss – but if the underdog wins, you will be well compensated. This strategy is also recommended for 2022/2023.
Bundesliga draws with odds between 3.4 and 4.0
The Bundesliga is not a league where you would normally expect many draws. And overall, the percentage of draws was also only a very low 23.9%. But when the odds for a draw are set a bit higher – in this case 3.4 and 4.00 – betting on an X proved to be extremely profitable. In total, a plus of 2517 euros was generated in this way.
Particularly lucrative in this odds range were 1.FC Köln (+1437 Euro), Arminia Bielefeld (+1000 Euro), Eintracht Frankfurt (+964 Euro) and Greuther Fürth (+587 Euro). On the other hand, only a few clubs were in the red, including RB Leipzig (-454 euros) and Borussia Dortmund (-331 euros).
With this strategy, there would have already been a fat plus of 1088 euros after 100 games. There would also have been a plus in 2020/2021.
Conclusion:
Since the Bundesliga is very balanced and favorite wins often do not happen, this odds range for draws is also very interesting in the 2022/2023 season. It’s worth keeping an eye on.
Underdog home wins in the Bundesliga 21/22 with odds of 6.5+.
The Bundesliga is the league with the most spectators in the stadiums. In the past, home support almost guaranteed a home win. But in recent years, the importance of home games has changed. Many teams have specialized in away games, relying on controlled defense with raiding counterattacks. This has led to a sharp decline in the home win rate. However, things have changed in the 2021/2022 Bundesliga season, at least in terms of betting revenue.
With a consistent bet of 100 euros on home wins from the first to the last match day, you could have even posted a plus of 1800 euros on your credit side after 34 match days.
The special focus, however, is on the so-called underdogs. In the Bundesliga, every home team can keep up on a good day and that was also the case last season. Odds of more than 6.5 for the home team meant a fantastic plus of 2,031 euros in just 13 possible games – an ROI of 156.2%. After 100 games, there would have been a plus of 1702 euros, which would have increased to 2513 euros after 200 games. Only in the last third of the season were there mainly defeats in this area.
Conclusion:
There will be many underdog home wins in the 22/23 season as well. Such high odds are simply unreal for a home team in the Bundesliga. However, with Arminia Bielefeld and Greuther Fürth, two glaring outsiders have fallen away.
Draws in the Italian Seria A with home odds between 1.74 and 2.5 and draw odds between 3.00 and 3.8
With these two important factors as filters, namely home odds between 1.74 and 2.5 and draw odds between 3.00 and 3.80, one could have really cleaned up in the Italian Seria A. This constellation only occurred 86 times – and 34 of those times it was profitable. With odds of 3.40 on average, this is of course enough to generate good income: At the end of the season, you would have earned 3367 euros with a sensational return of 39.2%.
To put that into a probability: The possibility of a home win is between 57% and 40%, while the probability of a draw is between 33% and 26%. Our recipe for success in the Italian league.
The best turnover could have been made with FC Empoli (+653 euros), followed by Juventus Turin (+573 euros), Sassuolo (502 euros) and Lazio Roma (+326 euros). However, with AC Milan (-400 euros) and Hellas Verona (-400), there were also two teams that clouded the statistics somewhat. BUT: All the other 18 teams would have made a plus!
This data is based on the closing odds. However, we would have done well with the opening prices as well – but even better with home win odds between 1.80 and 2.50. Then we would have brought in 1700 Euros with an ROI of 30%.
Conclusion:
You have to sharpen your eye for the odds and strike at certain constellations. For this you need a little patience, but it pays off. Since this strategy would also have been profitable in Italy in previous years, it should definitely be continued in 22/23.
Home underdogs with DNB in the Spanish league (odds of 3.75+).
Spanish La Liga is teeming with glorious teams that have won many international trophies. But half of the league consists of clubs that may not have such illustrious names and are regularly underestimated by bookmakers. That’s why there were high DNB odds of 3.75 and above for the hosts a total of 24 times, and that bet would have really paid off. Although you would have lost in 13 of the games, there were 7 times you would have won, while in four other games you would have gotten your money back.
In total, you would have made +1145 euros with an incredible 47.7% ROI.
Granada FC in particular proved to be the big favorites (+573 euros), as well as Espanyol Barcelona (+289 euros) and Getafe FC (+279 euros). Unfortunately, betting on FC Cadiz would have been a waste of time (-300 euros).
Bets against Villarreal FC (+607 euros) and Atletico Madrid (+568 euros) were particularly profitable. FC Barcelona was less easily shocked away from home despite many miserable performances. Bets against Barca would have resulted in a minus under these conditions (-300 euros).
Conclusion:
It’s worth having a look here in 2022/2023 as well. The Spanish league is always good for surprises. You could continue to be rewarded with big wins.
Double Chance X2 in the English Premier League with odds between 1.85 and 2.60
In the 2021/2022 season, it was very difficult to make a lasting profit betting on the EPL. The results were too inconsistent, the league presented itself too balanced with the exception of the two top teams Liverpool and Manchester City.
Nevertheless, we found one area where you could cash in last season: and that was on the double chance for the away teams, i.e. X2, in the odds range between 1.85 and 2.60. In other words, higher rated underdogs. In 73 of the 380 games, there was this odds constellation and a plus of 1097 euros would have been possible with it (ROI 15.0%).
Particularly lucrative would have been the games involving West Ham United (+493 euros), followed by Southampton FC (+276 euros) and Manchester United (+276 euros). On the other hand, betting on Tottenham Hotspurs (-336 euros) or Leicester City (-275 euros) would not have been a good idea.
Conclusion:
Even in the new season, it makes sense to have a look at this odds range. The very big underdogs are not included in it, but especially because of the balance of the English Premier League, you can often profit here.
Double Chance 1x in the German Bundesliga with odds between 1.75 and 2.35.
Since the stadiums in the Bundesliga are almost always full, it is actually rare that a home team really passes as an underdog. Still, it’s happened often enough. And if you had applied Double Chance 1x or Asian Handicap +0.5 at odds of 1.75 and 2.35, you would have had a very good plus of 1022 euros. This constellation occurred only rarely: Only 37 times were home teams rated slightly worse than their opponents. These included games like Hertha vs. Hoffenheim, Freiburg vs. Dortmund or Cologne vs. Leverkusen.
1.FC Köln could not be beaten in this odds range. All their three constellations they would have won. Seen in total +250 euros. There were also good turnovers and profits for Borussia M’Gladbach (+245 euros) or Herha BSC Berlin (+214 euros). Only VFB Stuttgart would have caused larger losses (-200 euros).
Conclusion:
This strategy should definitely be continued in 2022/2023. The Bundesliga with its returnees Schalke and Bremen is very balanced and with the exception of the three superior teams Dortmund, Bayern and Leipzig, anyone can beat anyone.
Home underdogs in the French league with DNB odds higher than 3.0+.
Also in France you could have made a good profit with underdog bets on DNB with odds higher than 2.9. This constellation occurred 50 times in the very balanced league. It would have resulted in a profit of 1314 euros (ROI 26.3%). Although we would have lost 26 times thanks to 13 wins and 11 times money-back in case of a draw, winning odds from 3.00 to 7.00 would have led to the above credit.
A particular winner in this odds segment was FC Nantes, which would have won €838. Stade Rennes (+426 euros) and FC Brest (+334 euros) also filled their accounts. On the other hand, AS St. Etienne was a bitter disappointment in this odds segment with -300 euros.
By the way, the biggest gains were on games against Olympique Lyon, who still get higher odds than they actually deserve due to their big name.
Conclusion:
This strategy is also worthwhile for the French Ligue 1 in 2022/2023. Although you often have to expect defeats, when it comes to wins, they are also juicy and pay off the patience.
Goal bets
Goals are the ah and oh of soccer. It’s what we all want to see and hope for. But still, it is also the very biggest difficulty in a professional soccer game in leagues where the best defenders and goalies in the world operate. And our reviews of last season as well as even further back have shown that in most leagues, betting on few goals would have been profitable above all. The only exception to this is the German Bundesliga – but only for bets on more than 3 goals. The usual bets on more than 2 goals, however, would have been fatal in all leagues on average.
As odds were available to us here the early odds from Bet365.
Less than two goals in Spain
This is not a type of bet that you should do as a spectator. With every chance, no matter which team, it takes your breath away. But in fact, the best goal bet in Spanish La Liga last season would have been “less than 2 goals”. If you had consistently bet 100 euros on every single game, you would have ended up with 3432 euros at the end of the season with an ROI of 9.0% – that’s a percentage many pro bettors can only dream of. And already after 100 match days one would have come to a plus of 2406 Euros (24%). Only after that the profits would have decreased. In total, 116 of the 380 season games ended with less than 2 goals. But the average rate of 3.54 explains the good profits.
In the 2017/2018 season, there would have even been double the profits here. Over five years, it gave La Liga a plus overall. But beware: in all other leagues, especially the Bundesliga, this type of bet would have led to absolute disaster …
Conclusion:
In no other league should you bet on less 2. But in Spain it can be worthwhile even in the 2021/2022 season.
Less than two goals in Spain in the odds range 4.5 – 10.00
The sports betting providers, the market, simply everyone is sure: goals will fall here. That’s why the odds of Under 1.5 are so high. In fact, this happened only 41 times in the entire past season. But it resulted in a profit of 2,270 euros (+55.4% ROI!) – even if it only happened 11 times. But the odds of 5.52 on average were sufficient enough for rich profits.
Conclusion:
There were also profits with this strategy in Spain in previous years, so there is nothing against continuing it this season. However, you need some patience for this, after all, 75% of the bets are lost.
More than 3 goals in the Bundesliga in the odds range 1.74 – 2.53
The German Bundesliga was the league with the highest number of goals in the 2021/2022 season. After all, there were more than 3 goals in 120 out of 306 matches. But for a general bet on “More than 3 goals”, that would not have yielded a profit. But if you had turned away from the often far too low odds and rather watched the odds range from 1.74 to about 2.53, then very good profits would have been made: 110 times this would have occurred and the profit would have been a remarkable 2476 euros with a yield of 22.5%.
Conclusion:
The difficult thing here is the fact that you should ignore exactly those games where it literally screams for a lot of goals. These are mostly favorites against extreme underdogs. But you know how defensively these teams are then set. Therefore, this odds range is much more suitable, as it describes matches between reasonably equal teams – and they often go out with high results
English Premier League: Both teams fail to score (odds higher than 2.13)
Keeping the clean sheet is the dream of every defensive line and especially goalkeepers, who often even get prizes for it. But often it does not happen that one or even both teams remain without scoring goals of their own. But with the traditionally defensively strong Italians, the bet on both teams not scoring would have been successful if limited to the odds range up to 2.13. But there is immediately a big but: in previous years there would have been a minus, so you just have to watch it for now.
The situation is different in the EPL. Here, profits would also have been made in the past. In 2021/2022, it would have been 1609 euros in 163 games, so just under 10% ROI.
Conclusion:
The best and toughest defenders in the world play in the English Premier League. Since it often happens that not both team score. In this odds range under 2.00, the bettors also already assume that the chances that not both hit are very high. And it will probably be able to confirm again in 2022/2023.
Spanish La Liga and French Ligue 1 “Less than 3 goals” in the odds range 1.68 – 1.86
Neither league has been known for offensive fireworks recently. The sports betting providers could even literally smell the games with few goals beforehand. Even lower odds than 1.68 would not have been worthwhile, above 1.86 just as little. But exactly this range would have led to good profits in Spain and Italy.
In France, 824 euros from 88 possibilities (9.4%), in Spain 1365 euros from 157 games (8.7%).
Conclusion:
Less than 3 goals are already favored in this odds range, but it also hits frequently and can lead to wins. France may have been an outlier last season, with no plus there in previous years. But in Spain, this strategy proved successful over a longer period of time.
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