Hertha BSC vs. Hamburger SV – Betting Prediction, Odds for the Relegation-Playoff (19.05.2022, 20:30)

On Thursday evening, the first leg of the Bundesliga relegation play-off will take place at Berlin’s Olympiastadion. Bundesliga side Hertha BSC will meet the challengers from the second Bundesliga, Hamburger SV. The kick-off is at 20:30 CET. We have the best predictions, odds and team news for you.

By the way: You can bet on the Bundesliga with all the major sports betting providers. Find out where the best bets are in our betting provider comparison.

What speaks in favour of Hertha BSC?

  • Individual class
  • Better squad
  • Strong at home
  • Experienced coach with good knowledge of the opponent

What speaks for Hamburger SV?

  • 5 wins in a row (16:5 goals)
  • Great self-confidence
  • No fear of big names
  • Never lost a relegation match

Our betting tip

Bet: Hamburger SV +1/4 & Under 2.5
Odds: 1.87 / 1.89
Bookmaker: Bet365

Team news Hertha BSC

When a multi-millionaire gives a club a lot of money and the club can do what it wants with it, it usually ends well and with a successful result. But not at Hertha BSC. Despite the 300 million euros that the entrepreneur Lars Windhorst gave the club, the form curve went down and down. The management from the capital had completely failed and spent a lot of money on players who could not perform and did not fit in with the rest of the team.

But there was also a lot of impatience: when the popular coach Pal Dardai was sacked despite good football in 14th place, they brought in a coach who had never been mentioned in the same breath as the word success: Tayfun Korkut. With him began the end of Hertha’s end. Korkut could only win two games, otherwise, the Hertha team lacked the necessary class in every game. Consequently, Tayfun Korkut was sacked in March – far too late for Hertha. Former Bayern coach Felix Magath was brought in as a saviour and picked up 10 points in his 8 games – one more than Korkut in 13 games.

Team news Hamburger SV

When HSV slipped to 6th place a few weeks ago after several winless games, nobody believed that coach Tim Walter’s team would still have a chance of making the relegation play-offs. But with an impressive final spurt and 6 wins in the last 7 games, the Hamburg team was able to close the gap. Now Hamburg travels to Berlin with an extremely broad chest, knowing full well that they will meet a disappointed club that has been extremely weak lately and finished last season in a fully deserved 16th place.

Statistics

  • Hertha has lost their only relegation duel so far in 2012.
  • Hamburg has been in the relegation twice before and won both times.
  • Neither Hamburg nor Hertha have ever won a relegation match after 90 minutes.
  • Since 2012, there have only been three home wins for Bundesliga teams in ten relegation duels (5 draws, 2 away wins).
  • The goal difference in the last 10 relegation home matches is 2.1
  • Hertha has conceded 42% of their goals in the last 30 minutes.
  • Hamburg has scored 43% of their goals in the last 30 minutes.
  • Hamburg has won 6 of their last 7 matches.

Our betting prediction for Hertha BSC Berlin vs. Hamburger SV

A cross-league comparison is never easy. Of course, the Bundesliga team has a broader, individually better squad. But the second half of the season was extremely disappointing for the Berliners and the self-confidence of ex-HSV player Felix Magath’s team is at an all-time low. HSV, on the other hand, is looking at the game in Berlin like a cup match. They had played a successful tournament there, which led them to the semi-finals – among other results, they eliminated Conference League newcomer 1. FC Cologne in the round of 16 – and Cologne beat Hertha both home and away last season. Hertha has played mainly from the underdog position in recent games and stood very deep in defence. They cannot repeat this role against a second-division team – but it was not crowned with success either. This means that Hertha has to act more offensively and exactly that has been a big problem this season. The Berliners lacked the necessary creativity.

We bet that Hertha will not win this first relegation match. The history of the last ten years has shown how difficult the Bundesliga teams had it in the first legs against the second division teams – there were only three home wins. The second leg is – also due to the no longer existing away goals rule – a completely different topic again.
The bet Hamburg SV +¼ is available at odds of 1.87. Here, too, we assume that there will be few goals. The goal average of the last 10 years of only 2.1 is clear: And of the last 8 games, there were less than 3 goals in 6 of the games. This bet is available at a price of 1.89.

Max Stargard
Latest posts by Max Stargard (see all)

By Max Stargard

Even as a child, I started typing the results of the Bundesliga with my friends at school. The stakes were modest back then: The lunch, a few marbles or maybe a milk slice. Then, at the age of 9, I played the penalty bet once - and immediately got 10 right. The previous week I had won 500 DM and in my childish imagination I was already imagining how many football pictures I could buy at the kiosk on the corner. Unfortunately, it was one of those match days when everything turned out as expected and I only won DM 8.10. Nevertheless, I followed the game with great interest. Nevertheless, the passion to correctly predict the outcome of sporting events haunted me for the rest of my life. I would have loved to own the sports almanac that Marty McFly bought in Back to the Future II. Much later, when I was already working as a journalist for newspapers and as a writer for television, I came across an international betting forum with over 100,000 members - and found out that a lot of people there were giving their tips on German football, but nobody seemed to have a real clue, so I wrote a few English-language preliminary reports with a few tips - and was right about everything. After that, an avalanche started. I got offers from bookmakers, sports papers and even betting syndicates to work for them - and I accepted a few of them too, experiencing the ups & downs of sports betting and travelling halfway around the world in the years that followed. There I met Chinese multimillionaires betting five to six figures, amateur players in Serbia or Turkey supporting their families with small stakes, South Africans gambling away half their fortune, Brazilians who could only leave their favelha and become rich by making the right tips. At one point my life was similar to Matthew McCaughaney's in the film Two For The Money - and far too much stress. I subsequently moved to another continent and ran an English-language football epaper about the Bundesliga from there. After the birth of my son, I devoted myself for many years only to artistic projects in the field of photography and literature. However, I am happy to share my knowledge and passion with the readers of bettingtipsafrica.