On Thursday evening, the first leg of the Bundesliga relegation play-off will take place at Berlin’s Olympiastadion. Bundesliga side Hertha BSC will meet the challengers from the second Bundesliga, Hamburger SV. The kick-off is at 20:30 CET. We have the best predictions, odds and team news for you.
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What speaks in favour of Hertha BSC?
- Individual class
- Better squad
- Strong at home
- Experienced coach with good knowledge of the opponent
What speaks for Hamburger SV?
- 5 wins in a row (16:5 goals)
- Great self-confidence
- No fear of big names
- Never lost a relegation match
Our betting tip
Bet: Hamburger SV +1/4 & Under 2.5
Odds: 1.87 / 1.89
Team news Hertha BSC
When a multi-millionaire gives a club a lot of money and the club can do what it wants with it, it usually ends well and with a successful result. But not at Hertha BSC. Despite the 300 million euros that the entrepreneur Lars Windhorst gave the club, the form curve went down and down. The management from the capital had completely failed and spent a lot of money on players who could not perform and did not fit in with the rest of the team.
But there was also a lot of impatience: when the popular coach Pal Dardai was sacked despite good football in 14th place, they brought in a coach who had never been mentioned in the same breath as the word success: Tayfun Korkut. With him began the end of Hertha’s end. Korkut could only win two games, otherwise, the Hertha team lacked the necessary class in every game. Consequently, Tayfun Korkut was sacked in March – far too late for Hertha. Former Bayern coach Felix Magath was brought in as a saviour and picked up 10 points in his 8 games – one more than Korkut in 13 games.
Team news Hamburger SV
When HSV slipped to 6th place a few weeks ago after several winless games, nobody believed that coach Tim Walter’s team would still have a chance of making the relegation play-offs. But with an impressive final spurt and 6 wins in the last 7 games, the Hamburg team was able to close the gap. Now Hamburg travels to Berlin with an extremely broad chest, knowing full well that they will meet a disappointed club that has been extremely weak lately and finished last season in a fully deserved 16th place.
- Hertha has lost their only relegation duel so far in 2012.
- Hamburg has been in the relegation twice before and won both times.
- Neither Hamburg nor Hertha have ever won a relegation match after 90 minutes.
- Since 2012, there have only been three home wins for Bundesliga teams in ten relegation duels (5 draws, 2 away wins).
- The goal difference in the last 10 relegation home matches is 2.1
- Hertha has conceded 42% of their goals in the last 30 minutes.
- Hamburg has scored 43% of their goals in the last 30 minutes.
- Hamburg has won 6 of their last 7 matches.
Our betting prediction for Hertha BSC Berlin vs. Hamburger SV
A cross-league comparison is never easy. Of course, the Bundesliga team has a broader, individually better squad. But the second half of the season was extremely disappointing for the Berliners and the self-confidence of ex-HSV player Felix Magath’s team is at an all-time low. HSV, on the other hand, is looking at the game in Berlin like a cup match. They had played a successful tournament there, which led them to the semi-finals – among other results, they eliminated Conference League newcomer 1. FC Cologne in the round of 16 – and Cologne beat Hertha both home and away last season. Hertha has played mainly from the underdog position in recent games and stood very deep in defence. They cannot repeat this role against a second-division team – but it was not crowned with success either. This means that Hertha has to act more offensively and exactly that has been a big problem this season. The Berliners lacked the necessary creativity.
We bet that Hertha will not win this first relegation match. The history of the last ten years has shown how difficult the Bundesliga teams had it in the first legs against the second division teams – there were only three home wins. The second leg is – also due to the no longer existing away goals rule – a completely different topic again.
The bet Hamburg SV +¼ is available at odds of 1.87. Here, too, we assume that there will be few goals. The goal average of the last 10 years of only 2.1 is clear: And of the last 8 games, there were less than 3 goals in 6 of the games. This bet is available at a price of 1.89.
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